Guaranteed Income Fighting Against Technological Unemployment

Guaranteed Income Fighting Against Technological Unemployment

Juan Dufour
Economics, Macroeconomic Policy

Gloomy reports and predictions that technological advances will beget massive job displacements throughout the worldwide economy in the upcoming years have caused disquiet among many individuals. Technological advances will enhance productivity and lower prices, at the cost of high unemployment and consequently poverty caused by the lack of income to those unemployed. Artificial intelligence and robotics are expanding into transportation, manufacturing, retail, medical diagnosis, translation services, legal research, banking, financial services, and many other areas. A paper by the University of Oxford predicts that about 47% of contemporary US jobs will be automated out of existence in the near future (Frey & Osborne, 2017); and McKinsey reports that one out of three American workers are at risk of losing their jobs to new technologies (Manyika et al., 2019). This is not only a domestic issue, but a global one. That same McKinsey study asserts that 800 million jobs globally are at risk; and according to The National Bureau of Economic Research, increased adoption of robots in the US decreases employment and earnings for foreign workers as well (Kugler et al., 2020). Undoubtedly, technology will disrupt employment. Ideas on how to fight back are developing among academic circles and political parties. The most prevailing idea is that of guaranteed income. We shall examine this idea. According to economic literature, a guaranteed income program has (i) a positive financial, emotional, and physical impact, (ii) but a negative labor force impact. Further, forms of guaranteed income programs vary greatly in design, ranging from a Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) to a Universal Basic Income (UBI), to a Negative Income Tax (NIT). We shall define each program, identify if they are useful in fighting technological unemployment and poverty, and determine which would be the most effective.

Viewing the World Through Complex Adaptive Systems

Viewing the World Through Complex Adaptive Systems

Samuel Jaffe
Science & Nature

Small differences can lead to large consequences or change outcomes. A popular example of this is that a butterfly could flap its wings in New York and the next day in Tokyo there will be rain instead of sunshine. This phenomenon is commonly known as the ‘Butterfly Effect’ and it highlights the relationship between minute conditions and ending outcomes within a system. Although interesting, the Butterfly Effect is only a piece in the puzzle of understanding our greater world. A larger piece to the puzzle, but by no means the complete picture, are Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). If the Butterfly Effect represents the relationship in a system, then a CAS is the system itself.

ESG: The Future of Investing

ESG: The Future of Investing

Peyton Stanley
Investing

As society moves towards more sustainable measures and public consciousness increases, ESG components will become more prevalent and a determinant in investing. Pivotal investment companies, such as Morgan Stanley, are already prioritizing ESG in their strategies and integrating monetized measurements to provide a competitive advantage. Currently, ESG proceedings are primarily symbolic over substantive. Many ESG topics will not have prompt impact but over time, companies can reap the benefits from the longevity of their ESG investments (Insights, 2020). However, as research and technology prevail and society looks forward, tangible initiatives will transpire and ESG investing will promise a future edge for progressive investors.

Risk Mismanagement

Risk Mismanagement

Alex Naimo
Investing

Since closing at an all-time high share price of $100.28 on March 22nd, 2021, shares of Viacom CBS (VIACA) ripped down to an intraday low of $40.78 on March 26th. Similarly, after reaching a 52-week high of $78.14 on March 19th, Discovery (DISCA) shares shaved off nearly 27%, reaching an intraday low of $41.90 on March 26th. Chinese-domiciled companies trading in the US markets such as Baidu (BIDU) and Tencent (TME) wiped off 33.5% and 48.5% on March 26th, respectively. With the unusual share price action in otherwise strong corporations in a recently smooth-sailing capital market environment, reports quickly swirled. Most of the discussion linked to large amounts of block trades placed on each of the aforementioned equities by Archegos Capital Management, a former hedge-fund turned family office run by Bill Hwang. (#1Davies et al., 2021). Initially, the propensity and velocity in the price moves of the stocks were alarming. However, $10 Billion total in losses, the wiping out of a global investment banks risk division, and an ultimate mismanagement of risk are the most alarming aspects in the Archegos Capital Management scandal. This has led the shareholders of banks involved to question why the trades blew up, and how to ensure a situation like this does not unfold in the future.

Constitutional Changes in Latin America: Political instability or Social Positive change?

Constitutional Changes in Latin America: Political instability or Social Positive change?

Mauricio Ramirez
Political Process

Since 1900, all Latin American countries have made drastic changes to their constitutions (Jstor, 2012). The idea of changing the constitution denotes a line of thought that assumes the previous regime was the problem and the only way to improve is to reimagine the government from the ground up. The rhetoric of presenting the new government on a messianic scale is very appealing for incoming Latin American governments, but how long can this be sustained? Where is the line that separates continuity from chaos? Changes in the constitution can create opportunities to bring the people's voices together and create a positive social impact. However, these changes have also proven to be the perfect opportunity for a "strong leader" to become the only voice that matters.

Land Reform in Venezuela -- Developmental Economics Analysis on Property Rights, Part A

Land Reform in Venezuela -- Developmental Economics Analysis on Property Rights, Part A

Vincent Z. Yu
Economics

In Venezuela, the discovery of oil was an excitement for the fast and easy track it paved to wealth. Venezuela’s agricultural industry, on the other hand, was largely neglected due to over-emphasis on the oil industry. Such a tilted policy design deepened the tremendous gap between rural and urban areas, with only 12% of its population living in the rural area who produces food insufficient for the whole nation (Wilpert, 2007). Nevertheless, the greater demand for food did not fuel the welfare of the most fundamental supplier group – the farmers. Instead, it filled up the pocket of the elite class, the latifundista, as they had overwhelming property control over the key resources. Misallocation of property rights not only hinders the production power of the traditional farming class, it also causes a vicious cycle where incentives for relevant activities are nowhere to be found.

Pandemic Investors

Pandemic Investors

Kirtan Patel
Finance

The initial fear of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China and the first reported case in the United States of America marked a new day for investors worldwide. The fear of the pandemic had led us to halt everything, forcing our lives into an ultimate state of limbo, and financially damaging all sectors as lockdowns continued to be enforced. This catastrophic event led to one of the greatest and sharpest declines across all sectors in the market. Eclipsing the turmoil created during the 2008 recessions, “6 trillion USD in wealth was washed out from the global stock market in the week of 24th February” (Chowdhury). This unprecedented amount would lead the International Monetary Fund to declare that the world is facing the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

The EV Effect

The EV Effect

Bobby Markus
Technology

Innovation and popularity of the electric vehicle industry has reached new heights recently, as the push for saving our environment through cleaner emissions are taking root in America. The United States is behind in the EV industry when compared to their competitors, but is beginning to take initiative and eliminate gas-powered cars from their roads. Currently, China’s EV market is three times as large as the United States’, but this could soon change as President Biden is proposing a substantial $174 billion investment in the EV market, with hopes to increase domestic supply chains, create American jobs in the industry, and provide sale rebates and tax incentives to encourage both consumers and producers (“The American Job Plan” 2021). Although this infrastructure package is still being debated, the Biden administration has already taken many other steps in promoting a cleaner and more fuel-efficient future.

The Infrastructure Needed To Support Electric Vehicles in the U.S.

The Infrastructure Needed To Support Electric Vehicles in the U.S.

Samuel Jaffe
Environmental Policy

Over the past decade, the Electric Vehicle (EV) market has rapidly gone from proof-of-concept to full manufacturing, and now approaching mass adoption. The economic environment is primed for EVs to flourish. Battery prices continue to fall each year, political climate policies push towards less carbon emissions, and legacy automakers are shifting into the EV space. It is only a short matter of time before EVs become the most common choice for transportation. Both personal and commercial.

Gone Cashless?

Gone Cashless?

Peyton Stanley
Economics

Leaving your wallet in the car was once a big frustration, but now all you need is one plastic card to make it through the day. As businesses across the country get rid of their bulky registers and trade it in for a sleek and minimal monitor, having a wallet full of cash won’t get you as far as it used to.

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