The Infrastructure Needed To Support Electric Vehicles in the U.S.
Over the past decade, the Electric Vehicle (EV) market has rapidly gone from proof-of-concept to full manufacturing, and now approaching mass adoption. The economic environment is primed for EVs to flourish. Battery prices continue to fall each year, political climate policies push towards less carbon emissions, and legacy automakers are shifting into the EV space. It is only a short matter of time before EVs become the most common choice for transportation. Both personal and commercial. (1)
However, as rapid as the progress EVs have made over the last 10 years, the infrastructure to support them will have to match the pace. The main infrastructures to be built-up for EVs are: charging stations, electrical grid upgrades, and battery supply chains, in my view. These three components are most important in making EVs mass-adopted transportation. Each is no small feat and all are needed to make EVs as accessible and useful as ICE vehicles. (1)(3)
Charging stations are analogous to gas stations, enabling convenient widespread access to replenish a vehicle’s range. The electrical grid is similar to gas pipelines. The the electrical grid will need upgrades because of a massive increase in demand for electricity.
As of right now, transportation is fueled by energy in the form of gas. If the main transportation method is an EV then electricity will fuel transportation. So, for transportation to become fully electric, the grid must support the increased electricity demand. Lastly, battery supply chains. Having a consistent flow of batteries is vital to an EV world. If the supply of batteries is not stable enough to produce EVs on a mass scale then everything else would collapse. A small example of this is when Tesla Inc. noted earlier in January 2021 that they were unable to move forward with their semi-truck plans due to a shortage of battery production (5).
Knowing what is needed for an EV world is great, it gives goals to achieve, predictions to make, and objectives to complete. That being said, it is as important to view the state of the current EV infrastructure.
State of Existing Infrastructure
Starting with charging stations, an analysis of the global EV outlook for 2021, by the IEA, notes there were 1.3 million charging stations globally in 2020. A 45% increase from a year prior with the most influential countries being China, European Union, and the United States. At a glance, this metric indicates a fairly strong initiative towards building out the public charging network in preparation of EV transportation. However, the increase in charging stations in the U.S. significantly lags behind the global metric. In 2020, the U.S. had 99,000 charging stations which is only a 28.5% increase from the year prior. Suggesting a possible extended time frame for the U.S. to reach mass adoption of EVs when compared to the rest of the world. That being said, the Biden Administration has expressed a desire to have 500,000 charging stations across the nation which suggests a new page in American efforts for EVs. (1)(2)
Moving to the electrical grid, an article from Reuters shows that the U.S. would need 2-teraWatts of power capacity to power 186 million light EVs (estimated 66% of all vehicles) in 2050. In 2020, the U.S. had a generating capacity of about 1.1 teraWatts. So roughly, the U.S. needs to double its generating capacity in less than 30 years to meet electrical demand in 2050. Aside from these estimations, there does not appear to be much action, for the time being, in upgrading the electrical grid to support EV transportation. Although the Biden administration has expressed intentions to modernize the electrical grid, there has yet to be any legislation passed to bring this intent to fruition. (3)(4)(6)
In regards to the battery supply chain, the existing supply chain is relatively young. Only a handful of manufacturers exist and those manufacturers have handfuls of factories to produce batteries. In addition, much of the raw material for high-end Li-ion batteries used for storage and EVs mainly comes from China. Building up this supply chain will require the most work for the United States. However, progress prevails as President Biden signed an executive order addressing this important piece of infrastructure. Executive Order 14017 seeks to research & develop battery technology, and provide financing for battery manufacturing facilities among other items in the order. This executive order shows great initiative and recognition of the battery supply chain while also providing some financial resources towards it as well. (7)
My Thoughts
From a quick glance it appears the U.S. has an alarming amount of progress to make in all three components of EV infrastructure. A lack of charging stations, a large gap in generating capacity, and a weak battery supply chain all contribute to the appearance of being unprepared. Although, electric vehicles themselves were not seriously considered to be a mass adopted technology within this century 10 years ago. Making the point of progress not always being linear. It can accelerate at exponential rates sometimes. Not to say building out the infrastructure will happen overnight, there will still be challenges, but all large projects begin with plans.
The atmosphere in the U.S. is either hesitant or reluctant to fully commit to a switch of transportation methods at this time. The attitude towards EVs being the preferred mode of transportation in the near future is growing more popular and is supported by the current administration. Once there is enough popularity, I believe many investments towards EV infrastructure will likely occur in rapid succession. From the existing state of EV infrastructure I see a possible “cascading” effect building.
At the moment, it appears there is general approval within the government of needing more charging stations in the U.S. My hypothesis is this general approval will allow the remaining two infrastructure components to fall into place. If hundreds of thousands of charging stations are built, there will be a rise in EV usage. This rise will cause a significant increase in electrical demand cascading into electrical grid upgrades. As the grid is upgraded, a more dramatic rise in EV usage will occur, bringing about an electrical stability issue that could be resolved by battery storage. Indirectly cascading into strengthening the battery supply chain. Thus, providing an infrastructure that could support EVs as the mass transportation option. One development leading into the next is an idea to consider as opposed to needing all three components to be built together. Under the latter idea, you run into the chicken and the egg problem. If the infrastructure doesn’t immediately exist then no one will use EVs and if no one uses EVs then the infrastructure won’t be built. Under the current administration and growing approval of EVs in the U.S. I believe a cascading infrastructure is more likely. Overall, supporting EVs just as ICE vehicles are supported is crucial to EV adoption. For now, it appears hesitance to commit is the only thing slowing down progress in the United States.
Citations/Sources
1.) Paul Vosper. January 27th, 2021. “Mass Adoption Of Electric Vehicles Triggers Needed Infrastructure Changes”. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/01/27/mass-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-triggers-needed-infrastructure-changes
2.) IEA (2021). “Global EV Outlook 2021”. IEA. Paris. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2021
3.) Nichola Groom, Tina Bellon. March 5th, 2021. “EV rollout will require huge investments in strained U.S. power grids”. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-weather-grids-autos-insight/ev-rollout-will-require-huge-investments-in-strained-u-s-power-grids
4.) EIA (2021). March 18th 2021. “Electricity Explained”. EIA. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/electricity/electricity-in-the-us-generation-capacity-and-sales.php
5.) Lora Kolodny. January 28th, 2021 .“Tesla Semi production on hold until company can make its own batteries”. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/tesla-semi-production-on-hold-until-company-can-make-its-own-batteries.html
6.) The White House (2021). April 2021. “FACT SHEET: Biden Administration Advances Expansion & Modernization of the Electric Grid”. White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/27/fact-sheet-biden-administration-advances-expansion-modernization-of-the-electric-grid/
7.) Department of Energy (2021). June 8th, 2021. “FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration 100-Day Battery Supply Chain Review”. Energy.gov. https://www.energy.gov/articles/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-100-day-battery-supply-chain-review
