All in Macroeconomic Policy
The Civil War is a central part of American history. The great bloodshed that began in the spring of 1861 settled many divisions in early America, from the prominence of slavery to questions about federalism to regional power. However, there were two earlier instances in which the U.S. could have descended into civil war; each was narrowly avoided through a mix of political skill, leadership, and sheer luck; this article will cover the first near miss.
The Civil War ravaged the South; railroads were ripped up, cotton plantations were destroyed, and the few Southern industrial centers of the time, such as Atlanta, were burned down. The Southern rail system before the Civil War was a small patchwork of different gauges–the distance between the rails–that primarily transported cotton to the nearest port. By comparison, the North had triple the track mileage linking the industrial centers under one gauge (Josef, 2019). Northern money flooded the railroads after the war; by 1873 the nation had laid down 33,000 miles (53,000 km) of new track (Richardson, 2007, 131) and railroads employed thousands of demobilized soldiers from both the North and South. Railroads turned to governments and banks in search of capital; they also turned to European banks when they couldn’t get capital in America, as many European bankers wanted a piece of the expanding American market. The trouble was that railroads required constant investment to pay off their debts; any break in the system could bring everything down (Dove, 2014). Ultimately, the cause of the eventual crash of the railroads and ensuing panic was America’s monetary policies.
For decades, people from the mainland U.S. and abroad have seen Hawai’i as an island paradise of beautiful beaches, local generosity, and stunning vistas. This has led to a massive tourist industry across almost all of the Hawaiian Islands which sees millions of visitors every year flock to its shores to pour money into pursuing their island fantasies. However, this vision of Hawai’i has a dark undercurrent — decades of colonialism and resource extraction have resulted in economic, ecological, and cultural damage done to the people and land of Hawai’i. Despite claims of promoting the well-being and way of life of the Hawaiian people, the tourism industry largely functions to extract the value of the land and labor of the people.
For decades, people from the mainland U.S. and abroad have seen Hawai’i as an island paradise of beautiful beaches, local generosity, and stunning vistas. This has led to a massive tourist industry across almost all of the Hawaiian Islands which sees millions of visitors every year flock to its shores to pour money into pursuing their island fantasies. However, this vision of Hawai’i has a dark undercurrent — decades of colonialism and resource extraction have resulted in economic, ecological, and cultural damage done to the people and land of Hawai’i. Despite claims of promoting the well-being and way of life of the Hawaiian people, the tourism industry largely functions to extract the value of the land and labor of the people.
Gloomy reports and predictions that technological advances will beget massive job displacements throughout the worldwide economy in the upcoming years have caused disquiet among many individuals. Technological advances will enhance productivity and lower prices, at the cost of high unemployment and consequently poverty caused by the lack of income to those unemployed. Artificial intelligence and robotics are expanding into transportation, manufacturing, retail, medical diagnosis, translation services, legal research, banking, financial services, and many other areas. A paper by the University of Oxford predicts that about 47% of contemporary US jobs will be automated out of existence in the near future (Frey & Osborne, 2017); and McKinsey reports that one out of three American workers are at risk of losing their jobs to new technologies (Manyika et al., 2019). This is not only a domestic issue, but a global one. That same McKinsey study asserts that 800 million jobs globally are at risk; and according to The National Bureau of Economic Research, increased adoption of robots in the US decreases employment and earnings for foreign workers as well (Kugler et al., 2020). Undoubtedly, technology will disrupt employment. Ideas on how to fight back are developing among academic circles and political parties. The most prevailing idea is that of guaranteed income. We shall examine this idea. According to economic literature, a guaranteed income program has (i) a positive financial, emotional, and physical impact, (ii) but a negative labor force impact. Further, forms of guaranteed income programs vary greatly in design, ranging from a Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) to a Universal Basic Income (UBI), to a Negative Income Tax (NIT). We shall define each program, identify if they are useful in fighting technological unemployment and poverty, and determine which would be the most effective.
Tax policy is complicated. Tax reform? Even more.
