Do We Still Need National Party Conventions?
The first national election convention took place in 1832 in the process to determine the twelfth president of the United States. The Anti-Masonic party opted for an open convention to nominate their candidate in an effort to differ from the “Washington elite”. The old nomination process was extremely murky and involved agreements between higher-ups in the party. While the Anti-Masonic party nominated William Wirt, the Democrats copied the Anti-Masonic Party in the same election year and used their first party convention to nominate incumbent president Andrew Jackson. The Whigs did the same to nominate Henry Clay. Jackson would go on to win the 1832 election, and political parties have continued to use conventions to finish their nomination process since then. The excitement the event created and the attention it commanded made it an ideal final stage of the nominating process for parties. Since its first introduction, the convention process has changed over time, but still remains unique to United States politics. With the current COVID-19 pandemic continuing to rage throughout the country, the nature of conventions must shift once again, as packed stadiums will no longer be an option.
Throughout the mid to late 1800s and early 1900s, party conventions served a very important purpose. Members of each political party went into the convention not knowing who the nominee would be. Deals were cut in back rooms and state-by-state delegation voting was conducted to see who would represent the party in November (Northeastern University). Conventions started to become more of a formality in the 1960s after primary voting was introduced and served as a substitute to choose each party’s nominee. Since then, with a few exceptions, conventions have been less substantive. Besides a few contested conventions, the party nominee has been known in advance of the convention. They often feature various speakers and their primary objective is to energize the party base and rally around the candidate. The “convention bounce” occurs after the convention and usually leads to the party’s candidate gaining a slight bounce in preference. According to FiveThirtyEight, a website focused on statistical analysis of sports and politics, Trump received a 3 point bounce in 2016 while Clinton gained 2 points. However, since the party knows who the nominee will be months before the convention, the original purpose of nominating the candidate at the convention has been replaced.
The nominating convention is uniquely American. Other countries do not have large arenas full of people from all over to watch candidates accept nominations and read speeches. And for the first time since 1832, America will not have these rambunctious events either- or at least not to their usual magnitude. The GOP, after much shuffling, plans to hold their convention at the end of August in Charlotte, NC. The original convention plan would have brought 50,000 people and $150 million in revenue to Charlotte; however, earlier in the summer, NC governor Roy Cooper told President Trump he could not guarantee full capacity of the convention due to COVID-19. Trump then said he would move the convention to Jacksonville, Florida, but after COVID-19 spikes in the state he cancelled those plans and shifted his focus back to Charlotte. The bulk of the details of the GOP convention still remain unclear, but it seems the main event, the actual nomination of President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, will be held at the Westin Hotel on August 21 with only about 300 people expected to be in attendance. This much scaled down version of the original convention is still more conventional than what the Democratic party is planning.
The Democratic national convention was originally planned to take place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on August 17-20. It was recently announced that none of the speakers, including presumptive nominee Joe Biden, will be permitted to travel to Milwaukee. The convention will now be entirely virtual. Biden will instead accept the nomination from his home. With both conventions greatly reduced due to COVID-19, the question is: are conventions as we know them over?
Since conventions no longer involve a surprise of who will be nominated, it seems as though the political process would not be terribly altered if they were to go away. The time and money spent by both parties to organize these large events is monumental. Primary voting has eliminated the need for stage-by-state delegation voting at the convention. Nominees no longer need conventions to attract national attention, as they can simply schedule a prime time interview on a major news network any time they would like. If that spotlight is not big enough, the presidential debates in the fall leading up to the election certainly are. Debate audiences are extremely large and outnumber the audiences of both conventions. COVID-19 has already caused permanent changes that will persist for a very long time. Social distancing guidelines are present in every industry from travel to entertainment. Work from home has become the norm as office buildings remain empty, and online sales have boomed while malls are losing stores by the week. Elements of everyday life that people were accustomed to before the pandemic will never return.
The conversation around the future of conventions will be even more interesting if Biden is able to win the presidency. The fully virtual convention the Democrats plan to put on could be the way of the future. The GOP’s watered down convention will likely feature some speakers. While an official list has not been released, Eric Trump and Donald Jr. are likely to appear. Trump and Pence plan to be there to accept their nominations. However, if Biden beats Trump without a convention, people may begin to wonder just how effective and important conventions really are in the election process. Even though “Convention Bounces” still exist, they have gotten smaller over the years, largely due to the 24 hour news cycle which provides ample opportunities for candidates to appear nationally outside of a convention. Since the metric was first tracked in 1968, the average bounce received by a candidate after their respective convention was five points. In the last four elections, only John McCain in 2008 received a bounce greater than or equal to five points. Mitt Romney in 2012 and John Kerry in 2004 both lost a point, which would constitute receiving no bounce at all. The combining factors of the complexity to set up conventions and little to no positive effects from conventions support the conclusion that national conventions as we know them may become a thing of the past.
Work Cited:
“1968 Democratic National Convention: A 'Week of Hate'.” BBC News, BBC, 27 Aug. 2018, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45226132.
Fung, Esther, and Sebastian Herrera. “WSJ News Exclusive | Amazon and Mall Operator Look at Turning Sears, J.C. Penney Stores Into Fulfillment Centers.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 9 Aug. 2020, www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-and-giant-mall-operator-look-at-turning-sears-j-c-penney-stores-into-fulfillment-centers-11596992863.
Glauber, Bill. “Joe Biden Won't Travel to Milwaukee for 2020 DNC Because of Coronavirus Concerns.” USA Today, Gannett Satellite Information Network, 5 Aug. 2020, www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/05/joe-biden-not-travel-milwaukee-2020-dnc/3299343001/.
Morrill, Jim, and Alison Kuznitz. “Three Weeks before the RNC, We Know a Little More about It (but Only a Little).” Charlotteobserver, Charlotte Observer, 4 Aug. 2020, www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article244581482.html.
Skelley, Geoffrey. “Why Counting On A Convention Bounce This Year Is Risky.” FiveThirtyEight, FiveThirtyEight, 6 July 2020, fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-counting-on-a-convention-bounce-this-year-is-risky/.
Stetler, Brian. “Debate Breaks Record as Most-Watched in U.S. History.” CNNMoney, Cable News Network, 27 Sept. 2016, money.cnn.com/2016/09/27/media/debate-ratings-record-viewership/.
University, Northeastern. History of the National Nominating Convention.
