Should Anyone Actually Worry About Jared Amash?

Jared Amash, a congressman representing Michigan’s third congressional district has launched a presidential campaign, seeking the Libertarian Party’s nomination. Amash, an ex-Republican, left the GOP in 2019, and now is the only libertarian in the House of Representatives. Gary Johnson, a Republican, was on the Libertarian ticket in 2012 and 2016. Johnson earned 1.3 million votes in 2012 and nearly 5 million in 2016. Amash’s announcement has drawn concern from both major parties, both claiming Amash could draw votes from their constituencies in November. However, there are multiple factors to consider when assessing who Amash will hurt more in the general election.

Historically, third parties have been essentially irrelevant in major elections. Since the mid 1800s, every president has belonged to the Democratic or Republican party. Due to the little success parties like the Green Party, Reform Party, and Libertarian Party have, voters are often deterred from voting for their candidates, as they do not want to waste a vote on a guaranteed loser. However, even without success in winning presidential elections, third party candidates have played spoilers in elections before. In 2000, Ralph Nader ran as the Green Party nominee and collected almost 3 million votes. Democrats would go on to criticize Nader as Al Gore (D) would lose by just 5 electoral votes, while winning the popular vote by over 540,000, to Republican George W. Bush. Amash could play a similar spoiler role in 2020, but to which side is the question.

The Libertarian Party platform shares Democratic and Republican viewpoints. Like the GOP, the Libertarian Party is fiscally conservative (anti-public option healthcare, lower taxes, etc.) and socially liberal (pro-same sex marriage, anti-death penalty). This opens the door for voters of both party to turn to Amash if they are unsatisfied with Joe Biden or Donald Trump. The question remains, which party will Amash siphon from the most, if either at all. One tactic to analyze this is to look at Johnson in 2016. According to exit polls, Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico, won 2% of Republicans, 1% of Democrats, and 6% of independents. Trump won the independent vote 48% to 42%, meaning if Johnson was not an option for voters and Johnson’s voters stayed home, Trump would have actually gained .4% of the popular vote, indicating that Democrat Hillary Clinton benefited from Johnson being in the race. Amash has been critical of President Trump, and the President tweeted a barrage of statements mocking Amash for declaring his intent to run. 

Another element to consider is the uniqueness of Amash’s candidacy itself. Firstly, being from a competitive battleground state like Michigan will surely factor into the equation. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes, while Johnson got over 172,000. Amash’s local popularity could push Michigan and its 16 electoral votes either way. Another factor to examine is Amash’s impeachment vote. In 2019, Amash was the sole Republican to vote for the impeachment of President Trump. His outward opposition towards Trump and prior Republican affiliation may make him an enticing option at the ballot box for “Never Trump” Republicans. This could make Amash the bigger concern for the president. Amash’s position on abortion, as well as his views on the shrinking EPA regulations, will do poorly with Democratic voters, possibly causing them to stick with Biden, or directing their vote to another minority party. The precedent set by Johnson in 2016, and the growth of the “Never Trump” movement, makes it more likely Amash will be a bigger problem for the President. 

With the election six months away, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and new reports of a former Biden aide claiming the former vice president sexually assaulted her nearly 30 years ago, things could still shift significantly. If the COVID-19 response is not seen to be sufficient by Republicans, but they refuse to support a Democractic candidate, Amash could attract their vote. If Democrats feel uncomfortable voting for Biden as allegations against him continue, and they could not see themselves ever voting for Trump, Amash could be their best option. Another element to consider is if Amash gains 5% of the popular vote, the Libertarian Party will be officially recognized as a “minor party” and will gain access to FEC fund matching and taxpayer dollars.  This would be a big fundraising boost to a party whose candidate, according to Open Secrets, raised less than $12 million in the 2016 cycle. Regardless of whether Justin Amash helps Biden or Trump more, that come November, he may add a little more complication to an already convoluted election.

Works Cited

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Montini, EJ. “Does Rep. Justin Amash's Vote Make Impeachment Bipartisan?” Azcentral, Arizona Republic, 19 Dec. 2019, www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2019/12/19/rep-justin-amash-voted-impeachment-does-make-bipartisan/2696156001/.

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Shackford, Scott. “If Johnson Gets 5 Percent of the Vote, Would the Libertarian Party Take FEC Money?” Reason.com, Reason, 11 Oct. 2016, reason.com/2016/10/11/if-johnson-gets-5-percent-of-the-vote-wo/.

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Volokh, Sasha. “Opinion | Gary Johnson Helped Hillary. Not by Enough, but He Did.” The Washington Post, WP Company, 11 Nov. 2016, www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/11/11/gary-johnson-helped-hillary-not-by-enough-but-he-did/.