Election Day in a Global Pandemic

With election day in less than two months and national conventions underway, it is worthwhile to start thinking about what election day will actually look like in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. While some states have still held primary elections since the pandemic appeared in the US in March, sixteen states have postponed their primaries. The logistics of executing a nationwide election are complex, and the solution will likely be a combination of early voting, mail-in voting, and socially-distanced in person voting. President Trump has already raised questions about the legitimacy of mail-in voting, although his claims about prevalent mail-in voter fraud have been widely contradicted. This concern could lead to long lines at in-person polling places on election day, which would create organization nightmares for those enforcing social distancing guidelines. All of these factors set up a gloomy picture for what voting will actually look like on November 3rd. 

On March 17th, citizens in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois all held their primaries despite coronavirus cases starting to emerge in the US. Results were mixed as Illinois voter turnout dropped 38% from 2016, but the states that encouraged early voting, Arizona and Florida, produced election day numbers that exceeded the 2016 Presidential Election turnout. Wisconsin held a hectic primary election on April 7th. 7,000 poll workers resigned shortly before the day of the election and the number of polling places was reduced significantly. These actions led to long lines at the polling places that did stay open. Also, an unprecedented amount of people requested mail in ballots. These requests overloaded the system and 9,000 people never received them. The logistical complications Wisconsin faced serve as an example to other states about how difficult it could be to hold an election during COVID-19. Since then, most states have decided to vote by mail or push back their election dates. President Trump has been adamant about opposing mail-in voting, claiming the election results will be invalid due to voter fraud if mail-in voting is allowed. However, actions taken by Republicans throughout the country suggest that they generally support mail-in voting. In some states, the state GOP is mailing out ballots to voters. Republicans’ silent support of mail-in voting coupled with the fact that voter fraud is extremely rare, about 8 people per year are found guilty of voter fraud (Minnite 2007), makes it likely that people will not be deterred from mail-in voting, despite President Trump’s rhetoric. 

Voters are not oblivious to the fact that voting this year will be different. According to the Pew Research Center, 49% of Americans “expect to have difficulties casting a ballot.” For reference, in a similar survey in 2018, 85% of voters said it would be “easy to vote.” Despite the indications that voters expect difficulty voting, according to the Brookings Institute, 2020 has the potential for record voter turnout. One key result that drives this belief is the percentage of voters who answered that it “really matters” who wins the election. According to a Pew Research Center poll, 83% of voters believe it “really matters” who wins the election. That number is up from 74% in 2016 and 63% in 2012. This election year, 78% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans have “thought quite a lot about the election”. Those metrics have risen  from 44% of Democrats and 52% of Republicans in 2000. Also, 2018 had the highest voter turnout in a midterm election since 1914. Michael McDonald, leader of the US Elections Project, predicts voter turnout will be “perhaps the highest in over a century, since 1908.” Voter turnout was at an all time high in 1908 as 65.7% of eligible voters took to the polls. If 65.7% of eligible voters vote this year the total vote count will be about 145 million, compared to 133 million in 2016. Large voter turnout combined with 6 in 10 Americans expecting to vote by mail will be an unprecedented test of mail-in voting systems. 

Mail-in voting is not new to several states. Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Utah usually conduct all elections via mail. This year, most states are allowing mail-in voting for any reason and several states are joining Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington and Utah in mailing out ballots to everyone. However, many people will still prefer to vote in person, which is why early voting is being marketed as a safe alternative. States hope that people will vote early in order to alleviate large crowds on election day. 80% of Republicans prefer to vote in person, while that number shrinks to 42% of Democrats. 

The main concern about the election should not be about fraud; it should be about when we are able to get the results. Historically, the winner of the general election is known on election night. With the large amount of mail-in votes expected, it could take a week or longer to decide the winner, especially if the election is close. In New York, the June 23rd primary took several weeks to be decided as the USPS had trouble processing some of the envelopes. Also, small errors such as postmarks or missing signatures made it so a large number of ballots were rejected. 

Strain on the USPS is a legitimate concern for the election. The ability to send ballots out and receive them on time is paramount to ensuring that everyone’s ballot is counted. Texas had issues accomplishing this daunting task in their primary. In Harris County, a large county including Houston, had almost 2,500 ballots returned late that went uncounted. The question remains: how can states ensure that ballots are received on time and a winner is announced in a timely fashion? To find the solution, we can look to the model presented by Florida. Florida’s primary was largely mail-in and results were announced by 10pm on election night. A state law that allows mail ballots to be processed weeks before election day helps streamline the process and ensure that most mail ballots were counted before election day. More states adopting this law could alleviate pressure on ballot processors on election night and provide results as quickly as possible. 

Another way states can avoid problems on election day is to bolster their infrastructure capabilities. These improvements will be vital to states like North Carolina and Wisconsin who have historically underutilized mail-in voting. In fact, historically in seven states (Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Wisconsin) and the District of Columbia less than 10% of votes are cast via mail-in ballots. Boosting infrastructure can practically mean several different things. Illinois is purchasing tabulating equipment and increasing staffing. Michigan is spending $2 million on “absentee voting counting board tabulators”. Minnesota and Maryland are printing more absentee ballots and envelopes. The CARES Act provided money to states for their elections, so it will be vital that those funds are put to good use to prevent election systems from being overwhelmed..

A lot of unknowns exist for election day: how many people will vote in person or by mail-in, how will in person voting be carried out to abide by social distancing standards, will the USPS be able to handle the volume of mail-in ballots, etc. It will be chaotic and uncertain, results may take days or weeks to be announced, and results will be scrutinized, ultimately making it unlike any election in US history. 

Work Cited:

Corasaniti, Nick, and Stephanie Saul. “16 States Have Postponed Primaries During the Pandemic. Here's a List.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 15 Mar. 2020, www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html.

Farley, Robert. “Trump Campaign Exaggerates Potential for Mail-In Voting Fraud After Election.” FactCheck.org, 14 Aug. 2020, www.factcheck.org/2020/08/trump-campaign-exaggerates-potential-for-mail-in-voting-fraud-after-election/.

Galston, William A. “Election 2020: A Once-in-a-Century, Massive Turnout?” Brookings, Brookings, 14 Aug. 2020, www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/08/14/election-2020-a-once-in-a-century-massive-turnout/.

Horta, Wagner Acerbi. “Voter Turnout Drops Significantly in 2020 Illinois Primary - Center for Illinois Politics.” Center for Illinois Politics - Connecting People to Politics, 18 Mar. 2020, www.centerforilpolitics.org/articles/voter-turnout-drops-significantly-in-2020-illinois-primary.

Mckinley, Jesse. “Why the Botched N.Y.C. Primary Has Become the November Nightmare.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 3 Aug. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/nyc-mail-ballots-voting.html.

Minnite, Lorraine C. “The Politics of Voter Fraud.” ResearchGate, Jan. 2007, www.researchgate.net/profile/Lorraine_Minnite/publication/266271678_The_Politics_of_Voter_Fraud/links/54dfc40b0cf29666378be6d4/The-Politics-of-Voter-Fraud.pdf.

Press, Associated. “How Florida Modeled a Smooth Mail Election.” Tampa Bay Times, Tampa Bay Times, 20 Aug. 2020, www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/elections/2020/08/20/how-florida-modeled-a-smooth-mail-election/.

Root, Danielle. “Wisconsin Primary Shows Why States Must Prepare Their Elections for the Coronavirus.” Center for American Progress, 12 May 2020, www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/news/2020/04/27/484013/wisconsin-primary-shows-states-must-prepare-elections-coronavirus/.

Staff, WSJ. “How to Vote by Mail in Every State.” The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones & Company, 20 Aug. 2020, www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-vote-by-mail-in-every-state-11597840923.