How COVID-19 May Affect Trump’s Re-election Chances

COVID-19 has taken the world by storm. Since the first confirmed case in December 2019, COVID-19 has infected at least 1.2 million people and killed over 69,000. While it is impossible to know when exactly COVID-19 appeared in the United States, or how many are actually infected, totals of American confirmed cases are on an exponential rise, up from 98 on March 4 to over 300,000 confirmed cases on April 5. This increase in case counts has drawn attention to how President Trump has handled the crisis,

According to FiveThirtyEight, at the start of the year, Trump’s approval rating was 42.6%. Throughout Trump’s presidency, he has stayed in the lower 40s. However, the latest Gallup poll has Trump at 49% approval, and his FiveThirtyEight average is still high at 44.6%. This is as high as it has been since January of 2017 when he took office. Better yet, according to the same Gallup poll, 60% of Americans approve of how Trump has handled the COVID-19 crisis. 

In times of crisis, it is common for presidents to receive a bump in approval ratings, a phenomenon known as the “rally around the flag effect”. Trump is not the only world leader who has experienced a spike in approval ratings as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. French President Emmanuel Macron also experienced a jump from 38% to 51%. Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte has also seen a boom in approval ratings, up to around 70%. 

The outbreak of COVID-19 also comes at a crucial time in US politics. With less than eight months until election day, November 3, Trump’s approval rating may be a sign on how the election will go. It is unlikely that the normal way of campaigning (large rallies, door to door canvassing, etc.) will be able to take place. This puts this election in unprecedented territory, as it is unclear what the strategies of the Trump and Biden campaigns will be to reach voters. These strategies will be paramount in gaining an advantage, as the polls between Trump and Biden have become increasingly closer. The latest national polls released this week have Biden +4 (polls by Economist/YouGov and Grinnell/Selzer). This margin is down from double digit polls released in early March by CNN and Quinnipiac. 

Swing state polls between Trump and Biden are also extremely close. According to the RealClearPolitics average: Wisconsin is a tie, Trump leads in Florida by 1.3 points while Biden leads Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona by 3-4 points. These states make up a whopping 131 electoral votes. 

This bump in approval rating at this stage in the race could push Trump over Biden in these close states. In order to avoid crowds of people at polls, states like Louisiana and Georgia have delayed their primary elections. While the general election is extremely unlikely to be delayed, COVID-19 will no doubt be impactful. There most likely will be limited access to large supporter events. The RNC and the Trump campaign officially suspended in-person campaign events in March. 

Trump and Biden will have to attract voters without coming into contact with them face to face. Biden recently released plans for virtual “Fireside Chat” events with donors. While Trump has not released any plans for virtual events just yet, it is very likely he will hold similar events to Biden.Media rhetoric and ads, such as those on Facebook which played an integral role in 2016, will be crucial. If the United States comes out of the Coronavirus pandemic with the media praising Trump, he can spin this positive media into higher approval ratings and advertise his popularity. 

There of course is a real possibility that COVID-19 does more harm than good to Trump’s reelection chances, as confirmed case counts continue to grow, so does the number of people losing their jobs. On March 26, the number of unemployment applications jumped to almost 3.3 million in the week prior, up from 282,000 the week before. The week after that number jumped to over 6.6 million. Many states are issuing “shelter in place” orders which restrict citizens from going out of their homes, making life extremely difficult for small businesses and restaurants who rely on patrons. These conditions contribute to an increasingly complex outlook regarding the 2020 election.

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