Why Biden Was Never Worried
Joe Biden spent most of the summer and fall of 2019 as the unquestioned favorite to win the Democratic nomination. He led in both national and state polls, and was the favored candidate by key demographics of the party, including older voters and African Americans. However, once the actual voting started, “Scranton Joe” could not convert strong polls into actual votes. He finished fourth in the Iowa Caucus and a distant fifth in New Hampshire, where he failed to even reach the 15% threshold to gain national convention delegates. All of a sudden, it seemed as though the crowded moderate lane, including Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar, was playing spoiler to Biden. The low point of the campaign for Biden, who according to RealClearPolitics had risen as high as 41.4% in national polls in May 2019, was the Nevada Caucus. Nevada is a notoriously diverse state, something that was supposed to play to Biden’s strengths. Instead, Biden finished more than 16% behind Senator Bernie Sanders and was just able to reach the delegate threshold to gain 9 delegates toward the convention. According to OddsShark, Biden’s chances to win the presidency were 20-1 after the Nevada Caucus.
And just like that, everything changed. Biden had a strong debate ahead of the South Carolina primary, a state that he was strongly favored in at the beginning of the campaign, but had fallen to a single digit lead. Then, South Carolina representative and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn endorsed Biden. According to Reuters, this endorsement was considered “important” to 61% of respondents according to an Edison exit poll. Biden would go on to win South Carolina by a whopping 29%. Then came Super Tuesday, where Biden would win ten states-including upset victories in Minnesota, Massachusetts, and Maine. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden now has a better chance of acquiring the majority of delegates than Sanders.
Most networks spun Super Tuesday as a complete upset for Biden. But the issue is, we should have seen this coming. Biden is especially strong with African American voters, an essential demographic if you want to win the nomination. The two states that start the nomination process, Iowa and New Hampshire, are the sixth and fourth most white states in the country, according to the World Population Review. Even if Biden had been polling well in these states last summer, they were never expected to be his strong suit. His finish in Nevada, a state with a large Hispanic population which has strongly backed Sanders, was not particularly strong either, but his second place finish cemented the race as a two candidate race between Sanders and himself. Furthermore, Iowa and Nevada are caucus states, which historically favor more polarizing candidates (see Ted Cruz in 2016). Two out of the first three states being caucus states put a moderate like Biden at a competitive disadvantage. His strength was always going to come from primary states that were diverse, specifically those in the south.
Another reason a Biden-dominated Super Tuesday should have been foreseen was the inevitability of the moderate ''lane'' shrinking. Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar both performed well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but had no path forward. Both candidates could not achieve consistent national polling in the double digits and did not poll well with nonwhite voters. Pulling out before Super Tuesday was not a surprise for either candidate, especially Buttigieg, who was not predicted to win any state. Both candidates endorsed Biden in Texas ahead of Super Tuesday, a state he won which was predicted to be a toss-up between Sanders and himself. Biden also carried Minnesota, a state he was polling in the single digits in before Klobuchar’s endorsement according to RealClearPolitics.
By dropping out, Buttigieg and Klobuchar may have been “toeing the party line”. By staying in the race and splitting votes from moderate voters, they allowed an extremely liberal candidate in Sanders to jump out to an early lead. Assuming the majority of Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters follow their candidates, this consolidates a large portion of the party and will make it more difficult for a more polarized candidate like Sanders to earn a majority of delegates.
Sure, Biden had some surprise victories in states like Massachusetts and Maine, but the momentum from South Carolina should have been taken into account when predicting these states. Biden was the front runner throughout the entire lead up to voting, and the media underestimating his path to the nomination is their own fault. Had they foreseen the potential for Biden falling short of expectations in states that did not favor him in the beginning of the nomination process, there would have been far less negative publicity. Once Biden got to South Carolina, he was fine. He took care of business and then his endorsements helped him perform well on Super Tuesday. After Elizabeth Warren dropped out this week and refused to endorse Sanders, it seems possible Biden could have yet another endorsement coming. Biden is now back at the top of Democratic candidates, just where he started.
Works Cited:
“Election 2020 - South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary.” RealClearPolitics, www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html.
“2020 Presidential Odds: After Huge Super Tuesday, Biden's Odds Are Surging.” Odds Shark, www.oddsshark.com/politics/2020-usa-presidential-odds-futures.
Kahn, Chris. “Key Black Lawmaker's Backing Factors Big in Biden's South Carolina Win: Poll.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 1 Mar. 2020, www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-south-carolina-poll/clyburns-endorsement-of-biden-a-factor-for-a-majority-of-south-carolina-voters-poll-idUSKBN20N13S.
NateSilver538. “Who Will Win The 2020 Democratic Primary?” FiveThirtyEight, 8 Mar. 2020, projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo.
Whitest States 2020, worldpopulationreview.com/states/whitest-states/.
