All tagged universal basic income

Guaranteed Income Fighting Against Technological Unemployment

Gloomy reports and predictions that technological advances will beget massive job displacements throughout the worldwide economy in the upcoming years have caused disquiet among many individuals. Technological advances will enhance productivity and lower prices, at the cost of high unemployment and consequently poverty caused by the lack of income to those unemployed. Artificial intelligence and robotics are expanding into transportation, manufacturing, retail, medical diagnosis, translation services, legal research, banking, financial services, and many other areas. A paper by the University of Oxford predicts that about 47% of contemporary US jobs will be automated out of existence in the near future (Frey & Osborne, 2017); and McKinsey reports that one out of three American workers are at risk of losing their jobs to new technologies (Manyika et al., 2019). This is not only a domestic issue, but a global one. That same McKinsey study asserts that 800 million jobs globally are at risk; and according to The National Bureau of Economic Research, increased adoption of robots in the US decreases employment and earnings for foreign workers as well (Kugler et al., 2020). Undoubtedly, technology will disrupt employment. Ideas on how to fight back are developing among academic circles and political parties. The most prevailing idea is that of guaranteed income. We shall examine this idea. According to economic literature, a guaranteed income program has (i) a positive financial, emotional, and physical impact, (ii) but a negative labor force impact. Further, forms of guaranteed income programs vary greatly in design, ranging from a Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) to a Universal Basic Income (UBI), to a Negative Income Tax (NIT). We shall define each program, identify if they are useful in fighting technological unemployment and poverty, and determine which would be the most effective.