Are We Ready for “Peak Oil”?
The roads we drive on daily, the technologies that run our world, the food we eat, and the products we purchase all rely upon fossil-based resources. Our extensive use of fossils makes them necessary for a functioning society as we know it. The raw materials and all relevant supply chains are subject to government regulation and often centralized in international affairs. The matter is highly politicized, with heavy debate surrounding climate change, energy independence, and a myriad of related topics.
There is, however, one incontrovertible truth underneath each discussion – the reality of peak oil.
What is “Peak Oil”?
The 1950s was a time of prosperity for the U.S. oil industry. Not only was domestic production increasing, but consumer demand for petroleum-based products was increasing as well. It was then that Dr. Marion King Hubbert published his paper “Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels,” in which he projected that domestic oil production would peak in 1970 before inevitably declining. He was correct (Eccleston, 2008).
Hubbert’s peak oil theory is based on the fact that fossil-based resources are nonrenewable and, therefore, finite. It asserts that at any given oil field, extraction will grow exponentially until reaching half of its reserves – or the peak of the bell curve. From there, production can only decline.
This trend is observable at every scale. It’s true for individual oil wells, states, nations, and, as many geologists warn, for the whole world. Several scientists have used Hubbert’s peak oil model to predict the year in which global peak oil will be reached with varying results–some even assert that we’ve already passed it.
Note. This model was proposed by Dr. Hubbert in 1963 when he predicted that global peak oil would be achieved in 2000. From “Climbing Hubbert’s Peak: The Looming World Oil Crisis” by C.H. Eccleston, 2008, Environmental Quality Management, 17(3), p. 26. Copyright 2008 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Are We Oil Dependent?
Energy
Fossil hydrocarbons – be it natural gas, crude oil, or coal – are largely associated with the energy-sector. They’re used to power our homes, businesses, and a majority of vehicles and machinery. These energy-related uses of fossil resources account for 80-90% of total consumption (Jiang et al., 2024).
Justifiably, energy usage has been the focal point of carbon emission discussions for decades. Fueled by public demand, the Biden-Harris administration deployed Executive Order 14008 in 2021, vowing the nation’s commitment to expand solar and wind energy in the coming decade (Clean Energy Future, n.d.).
There are a number of similar policies that strive to adapt the energy-sector to the public’s growing concern for climate change and public health. Nations of the UN have joined in efforts to reduce our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and keep the global temperature rise beneath 1.5° Celsius. Across the globe, this looks like investments in renewable energy as well as adaptations to transportation and efficiency standards.
Non-Energy Uses
Although lower than in the energy-sector, there is still high demand for fossil hydrocarbons from manufacturing industries due to their value as a feedstock or “ingredient” – in plastic and chemical products. Hydrocarbon feedstocks are used to produce primary chemicals like ethylene, propylene, methanol, etc., which are then used “further down the production chain to create a variety of goods” (Jiang et al., 2024). Tech, fashion, construction, agriculture, and medicine all rely on fossil resources as the primary feedstock because of their versatility in creating a large range of plastics and chemicals.
Since 2000, global production and demand for plastics in every form has had an annual growth rate of 3.6%. In 2019, this amounted to 460 million metric tonnes of plastic (and 5.3% of humanity’s carbon emissions), projected to double or triple by 2050 (Karali et al., 2024). Despite our efforts to reduce hydrocarbon dependency in the energy-sector, they still remain vital to our consumer economy. It seems oil industries are aware of this demand shift as they appear to be adapting their businesses – a majority of new chemical processing facilities are expected to transform 70-80% of crude oil into in-demand chemicals rather than energy (Jiang et al., 2024).
Our growing demand for petroleum-based products presents a significant obstacle in combating climate change by challenging the provisioned emission budgets set by the UN. Additionally, it demonstrates a concerning lack of preparedness for peak oil.
What Happens after the Peak?
Our economy’s reliance on petrochemicals is problematic because hydrocarbon resources are nonrenewable. The U.S. Department of Energy, when analyzing the risk posed by peak oil, has forecast that it could be destructive to the American economy and present an unprecedented challenge that will likely be “abrupt and revolutionary” (Eccleston, 2008). Because fossil resources are the primary feedstock that support virtually every industry, there will likely be an exponential rate of inflation coinciding with the declining supply of hydrocarbons. If society continues to operate as it does today, peak oil will bring about an economic crisis.
There are additional concerns regarding how we would be able to sustain modern society and the populations that depend upon petrochemicals. Take synthetic fertilizers, for example, which alone are the second largest use of fossil feedstocks in China (Jiang et al., 2024). It’s estimated that roughly half of Earth’s population depends on these fertilizers for the food on their table each day (Ritchie et al., n.d.). As we exhaust Earth’s supply of hydrocarbons, we pose significant risks to our society which depends upon them. Risk abatement methods will take decades of change to implement, and we’re procrastinating.
Are there Solutions?
In regard to the globe’s excessive use of plastics, there’s much deliberation surrounding what must be done to abate the greenhouse gas (GHG) involved in their production and the post-consumer waste produced. Much of this discussion involves shifting towards “circular plastics” – a manufacturing method designed to avoid linear production chains and “close the loop” through recycling.
The two methods of recycling are mechanical and chemical – reshaping the plastic into new products or breaking them down to their chemical components and reusing them. Both methods have several pitfalls.
We currently do not have the infrastructure to support them; only certain types of plastics can be recycled, and they can only be recycled a few times before the materials become unsalvageable.
Additionally, there are “demand-side” regulations meant to minimize use of plastics. They discourage consumer use of single-use plastics – which account for 35-40% of all plastics produced on Earth – by imposing various fees and taxes or banning them altogether, as seen with California’s ban on plastic straws (Kapustin & Grushevenko, 2023).
There’s minimal discussion surrounding chemical products, which are deemed “hard-to-abate” for their necessity in industrial operations (Jiang et al., 2024).
Closing Thoughts
The need to reduce fossil consumption in the energy-sector – for the sake of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – is widely agreed upon. However, the discourse lacks the same momentum when it comes to fossil feedstock usage in plastic and chemical industries. Given the reality of how fossil resources will one day be depleted, it’s worrying that our society has done little to address this dependence.
We will run out of hydrocarbon resources – it’s even believed that we might already be on the decline. In our current state of operations, we’re not ready. The longer we procrastinate on making changes, the more severe the crisis will be.
Works Cited
Clean Energy Future. (2021, May 24). Www.doi.gov. https://www.doi.gov/priorities/clean-energy-future#:~:text=As%20directed%20by%20President%20Biden%27s
Eccleston, C. H. (2008). Climbing Hubbert’s peak: The looming world oil crisis. Environmental Quality Management, 17(3), 25–30. https://doi-org.ezproxy.selu.edu/10.1002/tqem.20173
Kapustin, N. O., & Grushevenko, D. A. (2023). Analysis of the “circular plastics economy” phenomena and its long-term implications for demand for petroleum market. Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 30(36), 85889–85902. https://doi-org.ezproxy.selu.edu/10.1007/s11356-023-28441-9
Karali, N., Khanna, N., & Shah, N. (2024). Climate Impact of Primary Plastic Production. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6cc1g99q
Meng Jiang, Yuheng Cao, Changgong Liu, Dingjiang Chen, Wenji Zhou, Qian Wen, Hejiang Yu, Jian Jiang, Yucheng Ren, Shanying Hu, Edgar Hertwich, & Bing Zhu. (2024). Tracing fossil-based plastics, chemicals and fertilizers production in China. Nature Communications, 15(1), 1–12. https://doi-org.ezproxy.selu.edu/10.1038/s41467-024-47930-0
Ritchie, H., Roser, M., & Rosado, P. (2022). Fertilizers. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/fertilizers#introduction
