Exploring the Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Jobs and Industries
Ten years ago, driverless cars seemed like a far-away idea that only our grandkids, or even great-grandkids, would experience in the year 3000. However, here we are in 2024, watching the emergence of self-driving cars as a new sector in the transportation market.
The advent of autonomous driving technology has ushered in a transformative era in transportation, marked by six distinct levels of automation ranging from standard vehicles without automated functions (Level 0) to fully self-driving cars capable of unrestricted dynamic driving activities (Level 5), (Skeete, 2018). While car brands and manufacturers navigate towards their complete driverless potential, the industry is witnessing intense competition, particularly among automotive manufacturers, vying to deliver on the commitment of achieving comprehensive automation. This burgeoning sector not only marks a technological revolution but also portends significant economic impacts as it strives to redefine the future of transportation.
How will the emerging Autonomous Vehicle market impact employment?
The increasing prevalence of autonomous vehicles is expected to reduce the demand for public transportation jobs. This shift poses a significant threat to truck drivers, with the potential for substantial job loss, as highlighted by recent studies (Othman, 2022). However, companies are unlikely to get rid of drivers entirely. Autonomous vehicle brands must keep some physical staff due to the multifaceted nature of drivers' responsibilities that extend beyond mere driving; some tasks cannot be automated. For instance, while sensors can identify safety issues, addressing these concerns must be done by human intervention, as Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) cannot rectify such problems autonomously (Othman, 2022).
We expect to see a decline in blue-collar transportation jobs and a rise in more business-related jobs as a result. The lack of transportation jobs may encourage people to find employment in the trades or seek post-secondary education. In fact, approximately 47% of the entire workforce in the United States faces a high-risk classification for potential displacement within the next two decades due to the phenomenon of computerization, encompassing roles within the transport and logistics sector (Nikitas et al., 2021). In contemporary times, nearly every sector seeks professionals who can comprehend and analyze data to address business challenges. This trend implies that upcoming job opportunities may include more statisticians, software designers, engineers, and generally more data-driven professions (Nikitas et al., 2021). To combat these changes related to autonomous vehicles, employees in the transportation industry will be required to evolve along with the advancing technology congruently.
Anticipated disruptions in employment loom across various sectors, including vehicle manufacturing, rental, finance, retail, and petrol stations, as well as road transport support industries. This forecast is particularly pronounced if Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs) become predominant, leading to significant reductions in car fleets and subsequently offering lower fares to service users (Nikitas et al., 2021). The looming specter of job obsolescence is notably concentrated within driving occupations, specifically in buses, taxis, and trucks. These roles, characterized by salaries surpassing minimum income thresholds and lacking mandatory college qualifications, predominantly attract an older demographic with lower educational attainment and a more limited range of transferable skills than their counterparts in diverse professions, which poses a risk to those individuals forced to pivot when driverless technology becomes more common (Nikitas et al., 2021).
Despite the fact that numerous occupations are expected to vanish due to the onset of autonomous vehicles, emerging jobs and fresh business prospects related to the nascent industry are anticipated to arise. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) present newfound possibilities across diverse domains, including decision-making software, vehicle cybersecurity, and data-related opportunities (Othman, 2022).
How will Autonomous Vehicles impact the Automotive Industry?
In recent years, the automotive industry has been immersed in a profound discourse surrounding four disruptive trends: autonomous driving, connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility, collectively referred to as 'ACES.' These trends are anticipated to serve as catalysts for market growth, instigating a transformation in sector norms and precipitating a shift from conventional to groundbreaking technologies. Artificial intelligence (AI) underpins all four ACES trends, with autonomous driving relying on AI for real-time object recognition around vehicles.
AI's impact extends beyond autonomous driving to curtail costs, enhance operational efficiency, and create novel revenue streams in connectivity, electrification, and shared mobility. Shared mobility services, for instance, benefit from AI's prowess in optimizing pricing through predictive analyses and improving maintenance scheduling and fleet management. This integration of AI-driven enhancements empowers automotive firms to navigate and finance changes effectively, positioning them at the forefront of industry evolution.
While ACES trends reshape industry value pools and impact major automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), they also open doors for new players. Technology-focused entities are now investing substantially in ACES trends and vital technologies, creating an emergent ecosystem where traditional automotive companies leverage the technological expertise of new entrants. This collaborative engagement between established players and new entrants defines the trajectory of the industry's evolution, unlocking latent value potential and fortifying adaptive capabilities amidst the transformative ACES landscape (Baron et al., 2019).
The past decade has witnessed the rapid emergence of autonomous vehicles, challenging our initial perceptions of this futuristic technology. As the industry progresses through the six levels of automation, it brings not only technological revolutions but also significant economic impacts. The shift towards driverless technology raises concerns about job displacement in traditional transportation roles, particularly for drivers in buses, taxis, and trucks. However, this transformation also presents opportunities for professionals to adapt and seek new roles in emerging sectors, such as data analysis, software design, and engineering. Artificial intelligence is pivotal in facilitating these trends, offering new business prospects and collaboration between traditional automotive players and technology entrants. The future of transportation is not just about driverless cars but entails a comprehensive reshaping of industries and employment landscapes.
Works Cited
Baron, O., Berman, O., & Nourinejad, M. (2019). The Economics of Autonomous Vehicles. Toronto, Canada: Rotman Management. https://uttri.utoronto.ca/files/2019/02/THE-ECONOMICS-OF-AUTONOMOUS-VEHICLES.pdf
Nikitas, A., Vitel, A. & Cotet, C. (2021). Autonomous vehicles and employment: An urban futures revolution or catastrophe? Huddersfield, UK: University of Huddersfield. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275121001013#bb0055
Othman K. (2022). Exploring the implications of autonomous vehicles: a comprehensive review. Innovative Infrastructure Solutions, 7(2), 165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41062-022-00763-6
Skeete, J. (2018). Level 5 autonomy: The new face of disruption in road transport. York, UK: University of York. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162517314737
