Can Democrats break the Historical Trend in the Midterms?
The US midterm elections will be mainly held on November 8. The historical trend for previous midterm elections is that the party whose leader holds the role of president usually fares poorly and loses seats in the midterms.
The trend shows that from the years 1934-2018, the President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats (Woolley, 2022). This average presents a considerable power shift and can make it more difficult for the ruling party to pass legislation in the second half of a four-year presidential term. The sitting President’s party has only gained seats in the House on three occasions and in the Senate on six (Woolley, 2022). This demonstrates the statistical unlikelihood of President Biden’s Democratic Party making gains or retaining the same number of seats it currently holds in the midterms. Biden will be hoping the Democratic Party can break the trend this year, but how are the midterms shaping up for the Democrats?
What Seats are at Stake?
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are being contested. As it currently stands, Democrats hold a narrow majority of 220 seats in the House of Representatives, Republicans hold 212, and there are three vacancies after a death and two resignations. In the Senate, Republicans hold a slim majority of 50 seats compared to the Democrats' 48, with Independents holding the remaining two. Of the 35 seats being contested in the Senate, 14 are Democrat, and 20 are Republican. One of the seats is for the final four years of retiring Senator Jim Inhofe’s term in Oklahoma, and another is for the final six weeks of Vice President Kamala Harris’ term in California until Senate day in January.
Approval Ratings
As the historical trend highlights; the probability is that the Democratic Party will lose ground in the upcoming midterms. This is compounded by President Biden’s relatively poor ratings. Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight showed Biden’s approval rating at 41.8% and his disapproval rating at 53.4% on October 25 ahead of the midterms on November 8 (Roche, 2022). This approval rating is 1% lower than former President Trump’s in October preceding the 2018 midterm elections, while the disapproval rating is 1.4% higher (Roche, 2022). In the 2018 midterms, Trump’s Republican Party made a net gain of two seats in the Senate, while the Democratic Party managed to make an enormous net gain of 41 seats in the House. History shows that presidents with higher ratings than Biden have suffered significant midterm losses, particularly with respect to seats in the House. In 1978, Jimmy Carter’s 49% approval rating corresponded with a loss of 15 House seats for the Democrats. In 1982, Ronald Reagan’s 43% approval rating preceded a loss of 26 House seats for the Republicans. Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 seats despite his 45% approval rating in 1994, and Barack Obama had the same approval rating of 45% in 2010 when the Democrats lost 63 seats (McCammond, 2018). Despite Biden’s ratings being lower than the previous examples, one could suggest that even if he had a higher approval rating, he would still be likely to sustain heavy losses in the midterms.
Key Races
Although 35 Senate seats are being contested in the midterms, most of these will have predictable winners. The Republican Party is expected to retain its seats in conservative states like Alabama and Idaho, while Democratic candidates will most likely win in liberal states, including California and New York (Harb, 2022). This brings attention to a number of swing states, which are key to defining the outcome of the midterm elections. The Republican Party will look to take advantage of swing states in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, and New Hampshire and hold on to its vulnerable states, such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida (Harb, 2022). By contrast, the Democratic Party will hope to gain ground in order to avoid reliance on Democrat agenda-defying senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (of West Virginia and Arizona, respectively). Pennsylvania in particular is a critical battleground state in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections (Kolodny, Serota, 2022), with Republican senatorial candidate Mehmet Oz running against Democratic candidate John Fetterman to take the seat of the retiring Republican Pat Toomey. Democrats will be hoping that Fetterman’s narrow lead in the polls will be followed with a win and that this will be mirrored across other swing states.
When has the Trend been Broken and Why?
Only seven sitting presidents have seen their party gain seats in the midterms. These are: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump. And of these seven, only two have gained seats in both the Senate and House (Roosevelt in 1934 and Bush in 2002). Roosevelt’s Democratic Party’s gains arrived on the back of the implementation of the New Deal in 1933, and Bush’s Republican victories coincided with the war on terror following the September 11 attacks in New York.
As discussed, certain isolated events or initiatives have largely crystallized the American psyche, inspiring widespread support and often success for the policies of a ruling party. Thereby, such moments may allow for slicing through bipartisanship and leading to midterm election gains. However, the trend that the ruling party tends to suffer considerable losses may also be explained without reference to the effects of particular events or initiatives. Indeed, a lack of constituent interest and contentment can play a significant role in low voter turnout for the ruling party, whereas supporters of the opposition are often more motivated to vote and bring about their desired change (McCarthy, 2018).
Democrats face this risk, and President Biden is conscious of this; issuing many blue-faced appeals to voters to go out and vote. One aspect that may help to avoid voter complacency is the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade, which may inspire Democratic voters to mobilize to the polling stations and have their voices heard.
What is Likely to Dictate the Swing of the Midterms?
At the beginning of the year it seemed that COVID-19, Trump, and the economy would be among the main issues facing the Democrats in the elections. (Finn, Ledger, 2022) While Biden may have declared an end to the pandemic, the economy and the power of Trump’s endorsements remain strong factors.
Aside from the Trump picks who ran unopposed, his endorsements have received an average of “63.5% of the vote across federal, state, and local primary contests.” (Lahut, Hall, Griffiths, Rojas, 2022) As for the economy, efforts to combat inflation including the raising of interest rates and implementation of public spending packages, are front and center. The way the public responds to this will be a key determining factor in midterm outcomes. High prices on food, energy, and gas need to be controlled, and the Democrats will hope that they have effectively communicated their strategy to achieve this.
Bernard Grofman observes that Democrats should focus on what they are improving rather than what they are spending, as many of the things the money is going on have bipartisan support (Grofman, 2021). He highlights how the “defund the police” angle from progressive elements of the party was not supported by Biden, but was however largely used as a tool to criticize him. This highlights some mistakes in the way in which spending (or cutting, in this case) has been communicated.
Biden has had success with passing bipartisan legislation, such as legislation on semiconductor manufacturing, expanding health benefits to veterans, and legislation on gun violence, as well as the Inflation Reduction Act (Robin, 2022). However, he needs to avoid sowing divisiveness while also encouraging Democrats to vote. Divisive rhetoric such as drawing lines between those seeking to overturn the 2020 presidential election and those who sought to overturn Roe v Wade should have been avoided and needs to be avoided in the days ahead.
Conclusion
With early voting underway and final debates bearing upon us, it appears the Democratic Party are likely to face the destructive force of the historical midterm trend, leading to a significant loss of seats for the ruling party. President Biden’s relatively low approval rating is not an encouraging sign for Democrats, who will be hoping to win key races in swing states. While isolated events and initiatives have facilitated the breaking of the trend before, it appears these kinds of conditions are not present for these midterms. Voter complacency among the Democrats is likely to be an issue, as it has been for the ruling parties in previous midterm elections. However, the overturning of Roe v. Wade may convince voters (who may have otherwise been complacent) to go to the polling stations. Inflation and the state of the economy remain the key issues, and Democrats will hope that the implementation and communication of public spending plans to ease this will have been sufficient. Biden and the Democrats seek to break the historical trend but have been guilty of sowing divisiveness at times and will hope that this will not dissuade voters from the Democratic vote.
*Edited by Samuel Jaffe
Works Cited
Woolley, J. The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest. The American Presidency Project: United States
Roche, D. How Joe Biden's Approval Rating Compares to Trump's 2 Weeks Before Midterms. Newsweek: United States
McCammond, A. What Trump's approval rating means for the midterm elections. Axios: United States
Harb, A. US midterms: The 10 key races that will decide fate of the Senate. Al Jazeera: Qatar, London
Kolodny, R., & Serota, M. (2022). The 2022 midterms: up and down the ballot, Pennsylvania reflects national political splits. USApp–American Politics and Policy Blog.
McCarthy, N. Historically, The President's Party Performs Poorly In The Midterms. Forbes: United States
Finn, P., & Ledger, R. (2022). The 2022 midterms: the three challenges Biden and the Democrats face as they try to avoid defeat in November. USApp–American Politics and Policy Blog.
Lahut, J. Hall, M. Griffiths, B. Rojas, J. 4 charts show how many candidates Trump has endorsed who have won and lost. Insider: United States
Grofman, B. (2022). Why the Democrats’ likely poor midterm performance this year may be of their own and Joe Biden’s making. USApp–American Politics and Policy Blog.
Robin, J. Analysis: Can Biden and Democrats buck the historical trend in the midterms? NY1: United States
