German Politics Are in Dire Straits

Germany, long heralded as the leader of the EU, has recently been undergoing several political crises. Angela Merkel, the country’s long-standing and respected leader, has announced that she would not be seeking re-election in 2021. To complicate matters further, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who was expected to replace Chancellor Merkel, has stated she would not seek the leadership role in Germany (The Guardian). The announcement stunned analysts, voters, and other EU members, as they had long thought that Merkel’s party, the CDU, would undergo a smooth and effective transition. However, the decision may have been ultimately wise: Kramp-Karrenbauer was not as widely popular as she seemed to be in the CDU itself, owing to several controversial jokes and an inability to rally voters around immigration. The politician did not have the full backing of the party and came to the conclusion that she should resign after insisting that the CDU not cooperate with the AfD, a far-right party that emerged out of the opposition to the open-door refugee policy enacted in 2015. Germany’s second political crisis concerns the AfD’s internal divisions that create uncertainty for the 2021 elections. These two sets of complications will greatly muddle Germany’s entrance into the 2020s. 

Germany’s transition of power is therefore not as clear-cut as Germany and the EU may have hoped. Other players are emerging on the field, chief among them the AfD. This party has become immensely popular in the east of the country, where it replaced formerly-communist supporters (Deutsche Welle). The party, in just six years, has managed to switch voters from the CDU and other major parties. Furthermore, AfD has been highly effective at galvanizing former non-voters to head to the polls. Since the party’s inception in 2013, Germans have elected AfD politicians to every parliament in regional elections as well as the European Parliament and is currently the largest opposition party in the Bundestag. Its main policy tenets include sealing EU borders, enacting identity checks and creating camps to prevent migrants from reaching Germany. AfD is also characterized as a eurosceptic party and rejects Germany’s energy transition to renewable sources. While the party has had internal divisions, including several resignations in protest to its far-right extremist direction, the AfD continues to remain a dynamic force in eastern Germany. 

The political developments in the next few months will be critical to Germany’s future. The AfD has faced backlash in the past for allegedly fermenting hate in the country. Indeed, many blamed the party after the tragic killing of nine migrants in Hanau in February 2020 (The Guardian). The party’s rhetoric has certainly not helped domestic resentment against migrants, given its penchant for arguing that the refugees make Germany less safe and steal jobs. Therefore, an AfD win in the Bundestag in 2021 could signal a serious change in policy with regards to migrants’ rights and security. Furthermore, the party has pushed for a reassessment of Germany’s role in the EU, which could spell disaster for the union’s longevity and prosperity, especially in light of the need for German financial leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and the European Central Bank’s fiscal stimulus objectives. Regarding migrants’ safety, the reality on the ground could become outright precarious if AfD were to win the general elections. Daniel Koehler maintains that the party might change the historical marginalization of far-right organizations in Germany, whom the government and citizens currently largely disavow (Koehler). If this far-right group were to become mainstream, refugees might become increasingly targeted and face deportation.

While AfD has become an established political force, it has not been successful in spinning a cohesive narrative concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. This slow response has been largely attributed to internal splits and political machinations. Recently, AfD leadership threw out Andreas Kalbitz, leader of the Der Flügel, (The Wing) the hardcore faction that over 20% of the party supports (Deutsche Welle). The vote to expel him was fractious and angered many members of The Wing. The lead-up to the vote and ensuing debacle were contributing factors in the party’s lack of response to the pandemic. While the party initially supported Merkel’s lockdown decisions, AfD is now pushing for re-opening. Additionally, some AfD representatives have made the unfounded claim that migrants are to blame for the proliferation of the virus in the country. At a time when national unity is critical, the AfD has not demonstrated resolute leadership, and the fractious nature of the response may hurt it in a few months’ time. In fact, the party polled at its lowest since 2017 back in April, indicating the public’s support for Merkel’s policies and potential frustration with AfD’s feeble response to this generational crisis (Daily Sabah).

It is undoubtedly clear that Germany’s two major parties are in disarray. On one hand, the leading party does not have a clear successor, which will diminish its prospects for 2021. On the other hand, AfD understands that it must present a united front if it wants to continue its growth by securing votes from other parties in the Bundestag and corralling non-voters into heading to the polls. Germany’s internal political strife has vast implications for the EU. As mentioned previously, Germany has long been the economic and political leader of the union, and nobody has embraced this role more than Chancellor Merkel. From engaging with Russia, China, and the U.S., to pushing through the open-door refugee policy, Merkel has sought to enact her vision for the European experiment. Her decision not to seek re-election throws a wedge in the union’s trajectory. The EU relies on Germany’s economic stability, as it has been the backbone in securing aid to struggling southern members, including Greece and Spain.

Germany’s politics are also facing foreign threats. Russia has been accused of having ordered a hack on the Bundestag as part of a Russian GRU operation, resulting in the summoning of the Russian ambassador. This scandal has caused Germany to threaten EU sanctions against Russia for its attempt to interfere in German domestic politics (Deutsche Welle). The operation represents a microcosm of Russian policy to its European neighbors: the weaker the union, the better. Russia has consistently sought to sow disunity by deepening cleavages among member states and countries’ demographics. Russia’s interference in German politics could distort the outcome of the 2021 elections, as it has been documented to have successfully done in the U.S. in 2016. Russia, at this stage, would stand to gain from an AfD win given the party’s anti-EU rhetoric. Of course, if the party is elected democratically, then the international community should respect German voters’ will. However, in the run-up to the elections, allies of Germany should highlight Russia’s attempt to distort the democratic process.

In the coming months, Germany can expect a race between the CDU and AfD to present a calm, collected front to voters. Both groups understand that the 2021 elections represent a pivotal moment in German history: its long-time chancellor is stepping down with no clear successor, and a far-right group is positioning itself as a true contestant for key coalition positions or leadership. The EU also needs to regain its citizens’ confidence after the successful exit of the United Kingdom and to challenge the rise of eurosceptic parties in Greece, Hungary and Poland. The CDU has indicated that it would not select its successor until December due to the pandemic (Reuters). While it is making the correct decision in terms of public health, the delay may allow the AfD to make amends internally and re-emerge as the strong challenger it has become. The race is on to gain Germans’ trust, and both the CDU and AfD are in for the fight of a generation.

Works Cited:

1. Connolly, Kate. (2020, February 14). Germany’s political crisis: how did it start and what comes next? The Guardian. Accessed May 30 on https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/14/germany-political-crisis-cdu-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer-how-did-it-start-and-what-comes-next

2. Deutsche Welle. (2019, 7 June). Germany’s political parties CDU, CSU, SPD, AfD, FDP, left party, Greens - what you need to know. Accessed May 30 on https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-political-parties-cdu-csu-spd-afd-fdp-left-party-greens-what-you-need-to-know/a-38085900

3. Connolly, Kate. (2020, February 21). German far-right party AfD accused of fueling hate after Hanau attack. The Guardian. Accessed May 30 on https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/german-far-right-party-afd-hanau-attack

4. Koehler, Daniel. (2018, December). Recent Trends in German Right-Wing Violence and Terrorism: What Are the Contextual Factors behind ‘Hive Terrorism’?. Perspectives of Terrorism, Volume 12, Issue 6. Accessed May 31 on https://www.jstor.org/stable/26544644?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents

5. Deutsche Welle. (2020, May 28). Germany Summons Russian Ambassador over Parliament Hacking Attack. Accessed May 31 on https://www.dw.com/en/germany-summons-russian-ambassador-over-parliament-hacking-attack/a-53605178

6. Wire Services. (2020, April 19). Lowest Support for Germany’s far-right AfD since 2017, poll shows. Daily Sabah. Accessed May 31 on https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/lowest-support-for-germanys-far-right-afd-since-2017-poll-shows

7. Escritt, Thomas. (2020, May 15). German Conservatives Won’t Nominate Merkel Successor before December: RND. Reuters. Accessed May 31 on https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-election/german-conservatives-wont-nominate-merkel-successor-before-december-rnd-idUSKBN22R2BF