On the NBA’s One-and-Done Rule

One of the most widely debated sports topics is the NBA’s one-and-done rule.  Designed to prevent athletes from entering the NBA draft straight out of high school, the rule states that athletes must be at least 19 years of age and at least one year removed from the graduation date of their high school class (1).  The one-and-done rule earned its name because athletes typically spend one year in college before their age permits them to declare for the NBA draft. Often times, players will openly declare their intention to spend only one year playing college basketball, making it clear that they would rather be in the NBA if the one-and-done rule did not prevent them from doing so.  Some athletes choose to spend this time playing in leagues overseas, such as the NBL, where there is no age restriction. While some see the one-and-done rule as an opportunity for athletes to develop their skills at the collegiate level before jumping into the NBA, others see it as a needless obstacle for athletes who are destined for a professional career. However, most people fail to recognize that the underlying issue of this rule is that it limits a player’s autonomy.  Basketball players should have the freedom to choose their career path and not be dictated by such an erroneous rule, although elimination of the rule comes with a negative economic effect for college basketball.

The one-and-done rule was implemented in July 2005, which means it first affected the graduating high school class of 2006, and these athletes were ineligible for the draft until 2007.  The first and second draft picks in the 2007 NBA draft were Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, respectively. As high schoolers, they were each heavily recruited by NBA scouts and were considered to have generational talent.  Had they been able to enter the NBA draft in 2006, it is likely they would have still been lottery picks. The present-day situations of these two players demonstrates the needlessness of the one-and-done rule. Greg Oden is infamously known as the NBA’s biggest “bust” since his talent did not transfer to the NBA.  Spending a year at college did not help him develop his skills. It is likely that he still would have been a “bust” even if he was drafted right out of high school. The one-and-done rule served no purpose other than delaying the inevitable. On the other hand, Kevin Durant was the league’s MVP in 2013 and is currently one of the NBA’s superstars.  Given his successful career to date, Durant was ready for the NBA immediately after high school and did not need to attend a year of college to prove it. Some may think that a year at college served as a stepping-stone into the NBA for Durant, and he would not have found the same level of success without it. But still, the underlying issue is that Durant did not have the autonomy to make such a profound life decision because of the one-and-done rule.  

Another drawback to the one-and-done rule is that, for players who have the talent to get drafted right out of high school, the opportunity cost of attending college or playing overseas is an NBA salary.  It is reasonable to claim that most athletes would choose an NBA salary over a college scholarship. Kevin Durant in his MVP speech talked a lot about how he was poor growing up, stating that his mom would often go to bed hungry to ensure that her children could eat.  Durant could have earned a considerable salary right out of high school, but instead he was forced to wait a year by playing college at the University of Texas at Austin. Although he did earn a scholarship, the one-and-done rule prevented Durant from earning money he desperately needed at the time, hindering him and his family financially.  

A common sentiment shared among supporters of the one-and-done rule is that it aids NBA teams.  By forcing first-year players to play a year in college, scouts and teams can gain a better assessment of the payer.  While this may be in the best interest of NBA teams, it is not in the best interest of the players. Athletes can get injured or have a bad year, causing their draft stock to fall.  In 2012, Nerlens Noel was the number one recruit on the ESPN top 100 list (3). He would have likely been drafted right out of high school if eligible. Instead, he attended the University of Kentucky’s where he unfortunately tore his ACL and lost his status as the likely number one pick.  Because of his injury, his draft stock was hurt and he fell to the sixth overall pick in 2013. His situation shows how one’s career can suffer as a result of being forced to play a year of college basketball.

Abolishing the rule will mostly likely result in a negative economic effect for college basketball.  During the 2018-19 season, the Duke Blue Devils were responsible for six of the top ten highest viewed college basketball games (4).  Much of this can be attributed to Duke’s star player Zion Williamson, the Nasmith college player of the year and first overall draft pick in 2019.  Duke’s basketball team would have been considerably less talented and popular that year had Zion Williamson been eligible for the NBA draft right out of high school.  His absence in college basketball would have likely resulted in a lesser number of viewers, donors, merchandise sales, and fan attendance. This is a negative economic effect that can not accurately be quantified.  While changing the rule may not have an aggregate effect on the U.S. economy, it affects many socio economic decisions for fans of college basketball.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has recently stated that the NBA and the player’s association are likely a few years away from a collective bargaining agreement to abolish the one-and-done rule (4).  The rule can not be abolished immediately because it would not be fair to teams that have made trades involving draft picks. A new rule will be implemented no earlier than 2022 (4).  

Resources

1. Stark-Mason, Rachel. The One-and-Done Dilemma. NCAA: Champion Magazine. [Online] [Cited: April 12, 2020.] https://www.ncaa.org/static/champion/the-one-and-done-dilemma/.

2. Weber, Jerome C. One-and-Done: An Academic Tragedy in Three Acts. Washington : College & University, 2009.

3. ESPN. 2012 ESPN Top 100. ESPN Recruiting Database. [Online] [Cited: April 18, 2020.] http://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/playerrankings/_/class/2012/order/true.

4. Sports Media Watch. Zion, Duke, Boost ACC Tournament Ratings. [Online] March 19, 2019. [Cited: April 18, 2020.] https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2019/03/acc-tournament-ratings-duke-zion/.

5. Maese, Rick. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver says days of one-and-done players will soon be over. The Washington Post. [Online] May 9, 2019. [Cited: April 13, 2020.] https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/09/nba-commissioner-adam-silver-days-one-and-done-players-will-be-over-soon/.