How the Ukraine War is Changing the World
On February 24, 2022, Russia announced what its president, Vladimir Putin, called a “special military operation” into Ukraine. This war has damaged the global economy, the national economies of the world, and the lives and livelihoods of people in most regions of our planet, especially in developing countries. It has caused materials shortages, food shortages, and price rises in most regions of the world. However, what is perhaps changing the most about the world is the Western-power-dominated global order. No longer do the nations of the West hold infinite power over international affairs; they now have serious contenders, most notably Russia and China.
The current war in Ukraine has been ongoing for six months, and already it has caused so much damage to Ukraine. With port cities like Mariupol (Hindustan Times, 2022) and Sevastopol destroyed, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in all of Europe, under threat of attack (Byrne, 2022), not only is Ukraine under a serious threat of conquest by Russia but now both Ukraine and the rest of the world can be severely damaged by the failure of a nuclear power plant. In only six months, approximately 6.66 million refugees have fled Ukraine, 5.645 million of whom have made long, difficult journeys into Poland (Graniczna, 2022), either being almost trapped on busy border roads or having no choice other than walking. In both cases, they usually do not have access to adequate housing nor a stable food supply during the journey to Europe and after the end of their trek. The longer this war continues, the more innocent people will suffer both directly and indirectly.
As already noted, millions of people across the world have been hurt directly and indirectly by this conflict, with no end in sight. This would become even more true if the aforementioned Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were struck by military-grade weapons. Such an event, whether evoked intentionally or not, would mark the second time that a nuclear power plant would be forced to shut down, the first being the 1982 nuclear meltdown in Chernobyl. However, rather than a pure lack of coordination and human error, this event would be set off by a weapon, very likely to be used deliberately, leading to a far deadlier explosion, and thus more catastrophic consequences for the entire world, both inside and outside of Ukraine.
Assuming that the power plant is not hit, however, the current war in Ukraine will continue to cause widespread systemic problems for people across the world, with people in developing countries, notably Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, Algeria, and countless others, as it already has. All of these countries are highly dependent on shipments of grain from Ukraine to feed their people. In Algeria, for example, the prices for food, especially bread, have increased rapidly since February, made only worse by wildfires which have recently stricken the country (The National News, 2022). Also, Ethiopia is still facing a civil war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who want their own state, and the federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The war has made it difficult for humanitarian aid workers to deliver essential items into the country, especially food and medicine. This crisis, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, and now the emergence of monkeypox, has raised fears around the world that global and national supply chains are too rigid and delicate to withstand shocks from crises not directly related to the functioning of supply chains. In short, wars, like the Ethiopian Civil War, ongoing since November 2020, civil unrest, like the overthrow of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family from Sri Lanka on July 14, 2022, (Fernando, 2022), and other crises are putting pressure on already strained supply chains, with little, if any relief coming soon.
This war is also shaping the geopolitics of the world. African countries, like the DRC, have openly aligned themselves with Russia in the Ukraine war, with many African countries abstaining (i.e. not voting for or against), rather than affirming (i.e. voting in favor) motions by the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on Russia. Also, this war is only strengthening China. On the domestic front, the country is confronting internal strife from the increasing cost of living due to both COVID-19 and the collapse of giant real estate companies, most notably Evergrande. However, last week, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taiwan, which aggravated the tensions that built up as a result of ongoing military drills with South Korea and Japan. Since Pelosi’s visit, China has accused the U.S. of trying to undermine China’s sovereignty over the island of Taiwan, in which China only grants Taiwan enough autonomy to control its internal affairs, but nothing more. China, in this regard, could prove to be a vital ally of Russia in this war, as it has been in other conflicts, like the ongoing Syrian Civil War of 2011.
Finally, this conflict is allowing China to build up power on the international stage. With the U.S. focusing its military (by sending weapons to Ukraine) and financial (by sanctioning Russia) power on countering Russia, China has seized opportunities to expand its influence, such as positioning itself to enforce its rule over Taiwan more than it has before under the “One China, Two Systems” policy, where China grants Taiwan some autonomy in exchange for controlling its foreign policy (Kusa, 2022). China’s main goal in this conflict is to influence the trading patterns of other countries, a policy it has pursued even before this conflict, notably with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road fund, by financing infrastructure projects across the Indo-Pacific region, especially in 2017 (Le Corre, 2018). Since then, it has involved itself militarily with other regions, signing a security pact with the Solomon Islands in April 2022, an agreement which had secretly been in development since September 2021, Article 4 of which is perceived by its opponents in the Solomon Islands of being open to Chinese interpretation that it allows China to send its military to the island as China sees fit, seen by the U.S. and Australia as hostile activity. Finally, China has used its newfound power to deepen ties with Africa. China has been involved in African affairs since 1956, reaching one peak between 1970-1975, when China lent 980 million RMB (renminbi) to finance the Tanzania-Zambia railway (Sun, 2014). Since 2013, China has continued this activity through the Belt and Road Initiative, at times being seen as predatory lending by Chinese institutions (Lancey, 2022).
In short, the Ukraine war is accelerating the emergence of a new international order. Traditional powers, mainly the U.S. and Europe, are seeing their dominance challenged, and China is becoming a major competitor on the world stage. The economic damage inflicted by this war means that the new international order cannot be predicted with certainty. However, what is clear is that all nations of the world will be changed, internally and externally, and that international relations will be markedly different from what they were just 6 months ago
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